Driveline Baseball - Latest Comments

Re: Locating Up in the Zone – Better for Amateur/Recreational Pitchers

Alex Grady — Mon, 14 May 2012 14:03:23 -0000

Awesome. I had coaches telling me throughout little league to pitch down in the zone so I could get more grounders, and I pretty consistently told him that he was wrong, but I was 10 so I couldn't explain why popups were better than grounders. Good stuff.

Re: Making the Sabermetric Argument for Increasing Fastball Velocity

drivelinekyle — Sat, 12 May 2012 06:58:56 -0000

Givens:
Pitcher X
FIP Constant 3.12
Pitcher is a right-handed starter
Peripherals: 24 GS, 255 FB, 28 HR (11% HR/FB), 50 BB, 2 IBB, 7 HBP, 120 K (7.2 K/9), 150 IP (6.25 IP/start) - 5.02 FIP
Park Factor = 100 (neutral)
League Average FIP = 4.80
Replacement Level Win% for Pitcher = 38%

Improvements:
86 MPH -> 90 MPH (4 MPH difference)
0.165 * 4 = 0.66% decrease in HR/FB (http://www.fangraphs.com/fanta...
0.316 * 4 = 1.264 increase in K/9 (http://bezdomnybaseball.blogsp...
10% reduction in FB rate (http://www.beyondtheboxscore.c...

Hold constant:
-Innings Pitched, Games Started (likely would go up if he was more successful)
-Walks, HBP, IBB (unknown how this would change, though BB+HBP would likely go up slightly)

New peripherals:
24 GS, 230 FB, 24 HR (10.34% HR/FB), 50 BB, 2 IBB, 7 HBP, 141 K (8.464 K/9), 150 IP (6.25 IP/start) - 4.39 FIP

http://www.fangraphs.com/libra...
Value (WAR/$):
((((18-IPstart) * LgAvgFIP + (IPstart * FIP))/18)+2)*1.5
((11.75 * 4.80 + 6.25 * 5.02)/18)+2)*1.5
47.925
2.6625 + 2 = 4.6625 (runs to wins converter- TangoTiger)
6.99375 runs per win environment

4.80 lgFIP - 5.02 FIP = 0.22 runs worse per nine innings than league avg FIP
-0.22 / 6.99375 = 0.0314
0.500 - 0.0314 = .4686 (46.86% win%)
win% - replacement win %
.4686 - .380 = 0.0886 wins better than replacement every nine innings

wins rate * IP / 9 = WAR
0.0886 * 150 / 9 = 1.476 WAR
$5MM * 1.476 = $7.38MM starting value

New Value (WAR/$):
((11.75 * 4.80 + 6.25 * 4.39)/18)+2)*1.5
9.986 runs per win environment

4.80 lgFIP - 4.39 FIP = 0.41 runs better per nine innings than league avg FIP
0.41 / 9.986 = 0.0410
0.500 + 0.0410 = .541 (54.1% win%)
win% - replacement win %
0.541 - .380 = 0.161 wins better than replacmeent every nine innings

wins rate * IP / 9 = WAR
0.161 * 150 / 9 = 2.683 WAR
$5MM * 2.683 = $13.42MM ending value

Re: Young Arms and Curveballs: The Real Story Behind it All

Jared — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 22:41:35 -0000

Do you think that sliders are more risky than curveballs for a high school aged pitcher?
Jared

Re: Elbow Injuries and What Causes Them (Stephen Strasburg Bonus Content!)

drivelinekyle — Sat, 21 Apr 2012 21:00:59 -0000

I too have read Dr. Marshall's site. Thanks for the summary.

Re: Elbow Injuries and What Causes Them (Stephen Strasburg Bonus Content!)

drivelinekyle — Sat, 21 Apr 2012 21:00:36 -0000

If I wanted to read pseudoscience from Chris O'Leary, I'd Google it myself.

Re: Elbow Injuries and What Causes Them (Stephen Strasburg Bonus Content!)

Adbookdirect — Sat, 21 Apr 2012 20:57:13 -0000

If you look at these guys who have injuries, their arms form an "M" when they scapula load. The pitchers who have long careers all form a "W" with their arms when they scapula load.

Re: Tim Lincecum – What Changed?

Jose Nunez — Fri, 13 Apr 2012 01:26:23 -0000

From watching a few games that ive watched and have seen how tim was when he broke in. He was more flexible at least used more trunk versus more arm now. Now Not to say anything or point fingers but theres a pitcher who they have that Has to rely on more deception that anything such as hiding the ball. In a photo montage you can see how Tim is his wind up now he's actually resting his arm on his leg which before ways much further back. Velocity in my opinion has dropped on him trying to be more finesse. This guy doesn't need to try to follow in another s steps just cause they are team mates but truthfully it could be just the case. Bad coaching from the inside, The stuff is there.

There's no missing that, He hasn't physically changed too drastically which would show signs of too much wear and tear. No arm injuries we've heard of I do not think anything is wrong with him, Aside from this video comparison. He's not nearly bending down enough to "pick p the dollar" versus on the left where he actually does get better tilt. Seriously what are these pitching coaches sitting around getting paid for? Haha, I love pitching and I understand that each and every able body is build differently and this guy is no exception. He could just be taking a bit off as they seemingly tell a lot of pitchers to do as so they "last longer" Theres alot of truth to what The Ryan Express has said about pitching and on how you carry your load, and Throwing and Long tossing.Could be why he didn't sign long term and they went with giving Cain a big Deal who knows? He might want to become an Angel sing they got Pujols and it's in Sunny Southern California? ( haha I wish, This dude Weaver, C,J., Santana, Haren) niiiice Rotation! haha. Anyhow since a lot of modern age technology much of the game by many standards have seriously become just too micromanaged. I mean many of the deals players are getting now are seriously absurd and it's seems like it's a bidding war for the biggest loser some teams. In fact the deal Johnny Damon got to day by many standards is mind boggling. The guy just swings it, yea so theres are like how many players that spend their lives in minor league ball and they know how to swing it too! Long story short, Tim needs to just go back to throwing the ball man, Do what you do. Don't change the motion, keep fluidity, stay back over the rubber and launch forward.

Re: Elbow Injuries and What Causes Them (Stephen Strasburg Bonus Content!)

regionman — Tue, 10 Apr 2012 16:46:33 -0000

Baseball pitchers should never bring their throwing elbow behind their acromial line. (The imaginary line that runs from one shoulder through the spinal column and through the opposite shoulder).

They should should swing their arm down, back and up to a postion with their elbow behind them at about ear height with their throwing hand a little higher, pointing toward second base, with the underside of their forearm turned over to be exposed outwardly or upwardly at the same time their stride foot makes contact.

This should be an instant before they begin powerful trunk and shoulder rotation. If they follow these simple timing steps, they will reduce valgus stress on the UCL and bring stress levels down well within very operable ranges.

To keep it simple, use arm action and timing sequences that are much closer to how outfielders and left side infielders throw.

Re: Training to Meet Your Goals: Simple, But Not Easy

Jamie Holzhauer — Mon, 09 Apr 2012 15:04:54 -0000

Pretty awesome story, although I weep at the plug for those awful conjecture-filled books.

Re: Young Arms and Curveballs: The Real Story Behind it All

drivelinekyle — Tue, 03 Apr 2012 17:53:33 -0000

Thanks, Ron. Love your work.

Re: Young Arms and Curveballs: The Real Story Behind it All

Pitchingcentral — Tue, 03 Apr 2012 17:52:37 -0000

Excellent assessment. Keep up the great work.
Ron Wolforth

Re: Our Influences – Pitching

Randy — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 10:03:51 -0000

Powerful pronation can reduce release velocity IF it is executed too soon in the delivery. When practiced to perfection, pronation can actually ADD to velocity. Most players who first learn to pronate perform the action too soon during the forearm drive. With practice you can learn to "hold back" pronation until just before release and drive your fingers powerfully through release with additional veloecity being achieved. It's an acquired skill, but it does work.

Re: Strasburg, The Inverted W, and Pitching Mechanics

Dan G. — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 18:59:19 -0000

How much do you think Strasburg's front side finish following the semi-inverted W impacts his arm health? If you notice his mechanics from 2007-2008 when he was still closing at SDSU, you will see that his front side stayed closed a little longer through his delivery.

Re: Biomechanics Explained: The Difficulty of Measurement

Chris Melton — Sun, 08 Jan 2012 12:45:28 -0000

Sounds like hard work....i'm looking forward to your conclusions. Good luck!

Re: Free Weighted Baseball Program eBook

Kylejamers — Thu, 29 Dec 2011 01:04:49 -0000

You are being too nice!

Re: Reviewing ASMI’s Biomechanical Analysis of Dr. Marshall’s Pitchers (Focus: Performance/Velocity)

Guest — Thu, 22 Dec 2011 15:30:29 -0000

Why Don’t Dr. Marshall’s Pitchers Throw 90 MPH?
I've seen a 'Marshall Pitcher' break 90.

Re: Stuff to Read: 9/12/2011 (Steve Delabar Story, Jason Vargas THT Post)

drivelinekyle — Wed, 14 Sep 2011 19:56:39 -0000

That's a good point. There's not much in the way of velocity development in the professional ranks from my experience, but there are plenty of pitching coaches who think they can solve someone's control issues. Pitching is not a system of isolated parts - "control," "velocity," and so forth: You get better as a pitcher overall in any well-designed training program.

Re: Stuff to Read: 9/12/2011 (Steve Delabar Story, Jason Vargas THT Post)

David, Burien — Wed, 14 Sep 2011 18:24:11 -0000

Kyle--I enjoyed both articles; thanks for the links. I'm iconoclastic by nature, so I enjoy the pokes at orthodoxy. But seriously, the Delabar story is indicative of other structural and institutional shortcomings in baseball. Like pitcher scouting for one. How many anecdotes do you hear about teams scouting, drafting, and signing kids that throw in the 90's that couldn't hit the side of a barn? Plenty. Because they sit in the 90's, all you have to do is "teach" them control.

In contrast, how many stories do you hear about the scout that finds and signs an 18 y/o gem that commands his fastball, can change speed and location on demand, yet sits 84 MPH? None. Because you'd actually have to commit to longer-term development pathways to see success.

I chalk it up to the "inside the box," stick with what you know, old school rules mentality that seems to prevail in Pro baseball thinking. After all, when the kid sitting in the 90's fails and washes out, the scout can lay the failure at the pitcher's feet: "he couldn't be taught (control), wasn't coachable, etc." On the other hand, who would be to blame for the kid sitting 84 never gaining any velocity? The teams that provide the training and development program that failed the kid, that's who.

Thankfully there are many new things being tried for player and pitcher training these days and the landscape on the development side (pre-professional; youth through college age) is changing. The Cressey programs and your outfit are examples. Trevor Bauer and his own critical thinking. Dylan Bundy with his boxing work. Some other guy working with speed chains. Everyone doing squats and slamming med balls. And that's a good thing. Keep it up.

Re: Why it’s Called the “Inverted W” and Not the “M”

Trip — Fri, 09 Sep 2011 02:01:48 -0000

I always have this answer tucked in my back pocket. The question is way too common.

Didn't know about the SETPRO forum. I'll have to check it out.

Re: The Three Problems With Teaching Youth Pitchers a Changeup

Dan — Tue, 30 Aug 2011 03:43:28 -0000

Well, regardless of whether "full arm-speed" is truly full, it's still the most important factor in a changeup, one which still deceives the hitter even if only 95%, or whatever. "As full as is possible," then, still does the trick. It's irrelevant if Cole Hamels' changeup arm speed is truly as fast as his fastball, when he produces the effect that it is.

And yes, above-average fastballs dominate in youth all the way up until pro ball. But, above-average by definition falls on the slope of the bell curve; you mention "good" fastballs getting blown past them, but most kids don't have that ability. But, my big point is just that a lot of people with poor critical reading skills are going to read your article and choose to have their 10 year olds throw curves and write off changeups, because you say they aren't worth a damn at the youth level, which really isnt true. It was kind of blanketing. It's only true with kids and coaches who don't know how to throw, call or coach it.

Don't really know why I'm nitpicking you. I just believe in the changeup through all ages. Good luck out there.

Re: The Three Problems With Teaching Youth Pitchers a Changeup

drivelinekyle — Tue, 30 Aug 2011 03:11:15 -0000

Most coaching is bad coaching, Dan! This is something you should certainly understand.

As for "full arm-speed" changeups, this is a myth. Kinematics and kinetics repeatedly show that pitchers with elite fastball velocities (mostly in college and pro ball) have slower arm speeds on their changeups. The idea that the kinetic chain being broken in the wrist/fingers with the ball being held deeper is enough to create a large separation between the two pitches is simply false; a slower rate of internal rotation is required to get this separation. (See any of ASMI's research for validation)

And as I said in the article, changeups are great - and even necessary to succeed at higher levels of baseball. But they have the potential to do far more harm than good at the youth level.

I brought my data to the table with MLB PITCHf/x data backing it up, and I would find it hard for you to deny that youth hitters have a very high swinging (and missing) strike percentage on above-average fastballs.

But the crux of the argument is that changeups are taught by well-intentioned but poorly-educated coaches, and if we don't disagree there, then that's all there is to it!

Re: The Three Problems With Teaching Youth Pitchers a Changeup

Dan — Tue, 30 Aug 2011 03:00:07 -0000

I think this article is misleading, and most of the negatives you associate with the changeup only exist with poor coaching. A well-taught changeup is thrown with full arm-speed, which will not be "doing a hitter a favor" if he is also coached on when to use it. Even poor hitters develop timing within the course of an at-bat and game; they'll just start to cheat to make sure their bathead gets to the plate, and cheaters are the ones who get the most fooled by offspeed offerings. Using a changeup, properly, requires reading hitters on a realtime basis, which is much easier against younger and less formidable hitters. Aggressive little league hitters are going to throw their bats on even a poor changeup, whereas weaker hitters in defensive counts are going to "done a favor" with a 2-strike changeup. If it's a deceptive pitch with the right speed differential, it's an effective pitch at every level to strong and weak hitters, provided the pitcher/catcher/coach call the right game.

And as far as mechanics changing to accomodate a speed-change, that's a result of poor coaching or self-coaching as well. Changing mechanics is not a result of the changeup, but of the poorly coached changeup-thrower. I agree that babying a changeup will result in babied fastballs and/or altered mechanics, but none of that is a result when a changeup is thrown with fastball arm speed, and in front of coach who will enforce it.

Lastly, watch the Rays pitch - the "girl on girl" changeup is gaining steam in the majors, starting with them, and all over pro ball. James shields throws the most of anyone. Good changeups are proving effective to righties and lefties, as long as they are thrown with good arm speed. The side of the plate the hitter is on has little to do with the hitter's (mis)perception of the speed of the pitch. Average and below-average changeups may only cut it against the opposite-handed hitter, but, again, a truly well-thrown, deceptive changeup gets anyone out and is even better against bad, younger hitters than it is against pro hitters. Amateur hitters can't recognize good offspeed pitches early enough, which is usually why they remain amateurs. To only throw them fastballs is to give in to them even more, and though research isn't definitive, curves are likely harder on the arm than the change.
A lot of the statements in your article, Kyle, I'm just not sure of, based on my experience in the game and watching young kids play; I think they're more sound in theory.

Re: Science of Scouting: A Look at Gerrit Cole

Rick — Thu, 11 Aug 2011 14:35:48 -0000

Kyle
A couple of things jump out at me when I see Gerritt Cole pitch. He doesn't rotate well around his front hip which makes his shoulder and elbow take increase stress decelerating the arm. I think Cressey calls the hip internal rotation disorder" or HIRD. In addition, I don't like the way his arm recoils at the finish. Wolforth claims this leads to labrum problems. You might want to call about Wolforth's deceleration video to better explain what I am trying to say.

I don't think Gerritt Cole is going to have a very long baseball career. I hope I am wrong.

Re: Elbow Injuries and What Causes Them (Stephen Strasburg Bonus Content!)

Bsbalplayr — Fri, 05 Aug 2011 23:39:31 -0000

Nice site. seems like the pitchers that have ucl/mcl injuries have lagging arms. From the power position to "clock the midget" these guys are not getting their arm over their body fast enough. The front foot is landing and the arm is fighting to get over the top and through. Kerry Wood, Izzy, Billy Koch, Prior, Strasburg all have this issue. I had this issue. I had Tom john. Your biomechanics eval is so important to the young, impressionable players who are still trying to lay their foundation for arm slot and mechanics.

Re: College-Bound Seniors at Driveline Baseball

Trip Somers — Thu, 04 Aug 2011 01:12:15 -0000

Congrats, gentlemen!